Brexit – Deutsche Bank Research who pays housing benefit

The outcome of the UK referendum on 23 june 2016 took the markets and politicians by surprise. The decision to leave the EU has economic and political consequences not only for the united kingdom, but also for its partners in the EU and for the future of european integration. The uncertainty concerning details of the withdrawal arrangement, the transition period and the final agreement on future relations between the EU and the UK are putting a strain on the european economies, above all growth prospects for the UK. EU member states, as well as individual industries, are affected by the UK’s foreseeable exit to varying degrees. The pending regulatory requirements are immense and range from trade-related matters and access to the european single market (particularly important for the financial industry), to horizontal policies such as migration and social policy and domestic and security policies.Who pays housing benefit

finally, it raises the question of how the UK’s exit will alter the remaining 27 EU members’ countries’ priorities regarding european policy, including further institutional steps towards stabilising the eurozone.

The benign economic and public environment allows to fundamentally address shortcomings of the E(M)U. The next german government’s term is faced with numerous challenges ranging from brexit and its impact on the next EU budget to migration and the upgrade of the euro area. A revitalised relation with france provides the opportunity for substantive steps to further stabilise the euro area albeit germany and france need to find common ground on many issues and seek the support of EU partners. European politics is still less of a topic for the german electorate not least as mainstream parties are all various shades of pro-european.Who pays housing benefit however, the next government’s party composition is likely to matter for both speed and scope of changes on european level. [more]

With developments in the UK and the US, populism was a key theme in 2016. But does the perception of 2016 as “the year of the populists” really fit for europe? A closer look suggests that while populism was an omnipresent theme in public discourse, support for populist parties in polls rather remained stable and elections did not translate into outright populist wins. The rise of populist parties has however been a multi-year trend. Populists can affect national politics in various ways. One possible effect is that forming a government (coalition) often gets more complicated and time-consuming and results in more fragile governments. Another is populists’ potential impact on policy discussions’ style and content.Who pays housing benefit pursuing policies with long-term benefits but which are often not instantly popular becomes more difficult ‒ both at the national and the european level. [more]

The question regarding the consequences of a brexit for the EU, the united kingdom and germany is expected to remain unanswered for some time. The political uncertainties and exit scenarios range from a contentious separation to a second referendum. At present, however, we can expect that frankfurt will be one of places to benefit most from a brexit. In light of the differences between the size of london and frankfurt, london’s crumbs could become frankfurt’s pie. The relocation of jobs to frankfurt is also likely to boost property demand. The additional demand potential is welcome on the frankfurt office market because it will equalise structurally induced reductions in the financial sector and will tend to lead to further reductions in vacancies and increase rents.Who pays housing benefit the assumed 5,000 office workers are likely to relocate to the highly priced sub-markets close to the city centre. However, as new building projects also focus on these sub-markets, positive demand effects will be diluted. Because of existing demand overhangs, disadvantages are emerging on the frankfurt residential property market from a potential relocation of employees. Price growth and the shortage of housing will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. An additional 5,000 homes and a correspondingly elevated housing shortage are likely to drive prices up by more than EUR 100 per m². While purchase prices remain affordable thanks to low interest rates, they are strongly dependent on future interest rate developments. [more]