Nassim taleb is retarded bloody shovel

Happy New Year folks, welcome to the 8th (!) year of Bloody Shovel. Let me start this sure to be eventful year with one of these posts which just need writing. A quick internet search didn’t come out with any article with this title; so if I’m lucky this post will at some point become viral on Google. You think Taleb is retarded? You heard this exact phrasing here first.

What am I talking about? Most of you should know who Nassim Taleb is; a finance man turned maverick public intellectual by virtue of a book, called the Black Swan, which basically saved all the western financial establishment from blame about the great financial crisis of 2008.

If you read Steve Sailer you very much knew that all those Mexicans buying real estate with no down payments were going to unleash a subprime mortage crisis at some point. Not so! Said Taleb: that was a Black Swan.

A what? Some completely unpredictable scenario, a massive statistical outlier, he meant. He then colored the theory with a lot of fancy math. All those financial traders in Wall Street then could finally look themselves at the mirror again and not feel like evil failures. “It wasn’t our fault! It was unpredictable! Look at all that fancy math in the book. Only a genius like Taleb could understand that stuff”. It helped that Taleb is a Brown Man; hence a genius by default in our modern culture.

I know nothing of Taleb’s theories; although people who I respect intellectually, such as Eric Falkenstein, have written at length that they aren’t buying them. On the other side I see thousands upon thousands of bugmen and cucks who have nothing but praise for the swarthy bearded brown dude who likes to talk like an Italian mafioso because he’s convinced himself that being born close to the Mediterranean makes one white.

I could be wrong and the guy is actually a genius. But the geniuses I respect have a habit of not saying retarded things; at least not in public and when sober. That is not something that applies to Taleb anymore. One could read with some interest his stuff about finance math or “antifragility”, but now Taleb has come out as a full-fledged retard by saying what amounts (in my book) to the most retarded claim anyone can claim.

Taleb went on a Twitter rant (then about how IQ is a “pseudoscientific swindle”). His observation was based on his experience with “quants”, high-IQ math people who work for financial firms. He found them to be good at numbers but lacking at other skills, e.g. LARPing like a New York downtown mafioso or taking instagram pics doing low-weight deadlifts.

IQ and psychometrics in general are only controversial, only a topic of discussion when applied to groups. Most importantly, to racial groups. That’s the only one reason why anybody objected to IQ research. To be put it even more clearly, the only reason IQ is controversial is that black people test low in IQ tests. And that’s why Taleb *had* to come out and say, oh, saying black people have low IQ on average is *insensitive*. After all, northern Europeans weren’t rich until after 1600.

Letting alone the point that the Chartres Cathedral was up by 1220; the very simple point that Taleb here is ignoring is this thing called genetics. Surely those “Meds” he feels so proud of (after all, the concept allows him to claim the glory of the Roman Empire, instead of accepting that the Levant has been a complete backwater for 2500 years) are genetically quite close to those Northern Europeans who, besides beating Roman legions pretty much all the time, were indeed not living in societies as complex as those of Southern Europe or the Middle East. Germanic and Celtic tribes even spoke closely related languages to Greece and Rome.

Does Taleb know about this? Does he know about anything? Of course not. He makes a living by selling books to the soul-less bugmen in the finance industry; and he won’t be able to be able to keep being called to TV if he can’t claim to be part of the Bioleninism racket by hating on white people at regular intervals. He may not like being brown (half his waking hours are spent in loud reminders that he’s not an Arab), but he surely enjoys the privilege of not looking white.

I think Spandrell is making the same sort of mistake Taleb is making: Making judgments across fields. Taleb’s understanding of statistics and its application to the market is solid. Being an expert in your field gives some experts carte blanche to make their opinions across fields public, portraying them as knowledge from an expert (though most people neglect that the expert is from a different field than the discussion topic).

To prepare for a worst-case situation, institutions look to the largest disaster in the past, completely ignoring the future probability space. They essentially cut the statistical distribution (which is usually erroneously modeled as a Gaussian distribution) off at an arbitrary extreme, make preparations for that extreme, and thereby confine themselves to working in a bubble. They are blind to kurtosis.

I am not here to defend Taleb. I think Spandrell is correct on everything he has said here outside his comments on Taleb’s field of expertise, which is statistical finance and statistical finance exclusively. Spandrell’s article today is a bit of a disappointment in the same way an article on an actor’s political opinions or a politician’s movie criticism would be.

I like the title, and personally I never *got* Talib and I’m inclined to think he’s overrated until someone proves otherwise. However, this post illustrates the single worst tendency of the far-right blogosphere, which is to assume that everyone already agrees with you and has some align motive for pretending otherwise. My analysis of this spat is that Taleb has never thought about race and IQ before, gave a stock opinion and is now doubling down in response to criticism. The more he is attacked the more he will double down. He won’t look at the evidence until the dispute is over and someone presents it to him in a way that evades his crimestop (which is somewhat different to most people’s version of crimestop).

Meanwhile, the smart set on the Right celebrate about outing another fake rightist, since the dopamine high they got from outing J Peterson has worn off. The fundamental problem you have namely that 99% of people think your ideas are false and wicked has only been made worse, but you did maximise your status within a shrinking circle of the already converted.

It could be argued that IQ-based arguments lend weight to our fight. But I am not sure it does. Of course, arguing that you don’t want to be swamped by low-IQ, unproductive people sounds more than reasonable. But, like it or not, it also sounds “supremacist” to modern ears, for it obviously implies we are smarter (which we are). People (of the kind wecwaht to win over) will feel compelled (happy?) to denounce you in order to be handshakeworthy as soon as they hear IQ-based arguments.

As for Taleb, I had only heard him say sensible, wise stuff until now. He has denounced universalism because it destroys differences; he has spoken up against rules that are applied asymmetrically (to one group but not to the other, such as hate speech laws); he has warned against intolerant minorities imposing their will upon sleepy, dopey majorities; he constantly denounces the chattering classes as charlatans; he attacked “feminist” historian Mary Beard when she defended the idea of a multiracial Roman Britain; he clearly attributes great value to genetics (at least when it comes to ancestry); he strongly opposes the US interventionism that is bleeding Americans dry for the sake of you-know-who and aggravating refugee problems; he wrote an article called “No, Jesus was not a Non-White who would have voted for …”.