Number of Bitcoin transactions follows cubic trend _ Bitcoin bitcoin price 2008

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There is no justification for trying to fit a single curve to the whole history of bitcoin. The bitcoin economy had seen several radical changes and overpowering events in those 6 years. After each of those critical times, whatever processes that cause growth of the number of transactions t(m) may have changed, so the formula for t(m) may have changed too.Bitcoin price 2008

In particular, bitcoin after dec/2013 is not the same bitcoin before that date. One can see that in the plots of price and trade volume, estimated USD traffic, etc. And around jul–aug/2014 somethin again seems to have happened: t(m), that was nearly constant at ~60’000 tx/day, started to increase almost linearly until the present ~120’000 tx/day

1st january 2016: 147,226

1st january 2017: 234,259

1st january 2020: 685,440

Extrapolation of a trend fitted over 6 years should never be carried out for more than ~1 year beyond the final data point. Especially if the data is very irregular, the fit was poor, and the model is a polynomial of high degree. And especially if the underlying process is expected to have undergone radical changes in that span. A linear extrapolation fitted to the last 11 months could be used for another couple of months, perhaps.Bitcoin price 2008

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