Out with the old in with the new

All of the above is voodoo. You can’t will wins and losses. For relevant statistics, see pp. 298-301 of BJA3. You play, you have an hourly win rate, you amass hours. Period. The OP’s scenario is NOT a recipe for disaster if he is a legitimate card counter. It’s just a stupid waste of one’s time to leave a playing opportunity prematurely. So, he is limiting playing time; he isn’t affecting win rate (dollars won per hours played).

Finally, if you play any session of any given length, average win, when you win, should always be higher than average loss, when you lose, in addition to having more winning sessions than losing ones.

That, of course, is based on a stopping algorithm of always playing a fixed amount of time. You can "force" more losing sessions than winning ones, by a stupid quitting scheme, but that doesn’t influence one iota your global win rate. How could it possibly??

Moses replies: It’s still a game of people played with cards. Anyway you slice it, one cannot chase EV if they are not allowed to play. You’ve got to be the one in control and not allow them to take control. It easy to stop a loss, downswing, or limit a losing session. Simply walk away. But capping an upswing, win, or a winning sessions? Easier said than done. But one thing is for sure. If they cap it for you? In the words of Apollo Creed, "this IS no tomorrow. there IS no tomorrow."

Tarzan writes; If Gronbog can simulate T count, it’s safe to say it’s little he can’t do. There was an immense amount of work on that project. Verifying the values being plugged was as difficult and detail-oriented as it gets, considerably more trouble than actually learning or performing the method, which is from a practical application standpoint the maximum gain and efficiency with the least amount of mental strain, arriving at near perfect play. That’s what it takes to outperform HiOpt2ASC and anything short of that isn’t going to cut it. I’m not saying what you’re doing isn’t good or effective, or discourage you in any way, and merely saying it’s relatively certain it won’t outperform HiOptASC, with this coming from someone who has intimate familiarity with what it takes to outperform HiOpt2ASC. Gronbog doing a simulation for you would give you a definitive answer on your enhancements compared to everything else, much better than just speculation.

The illustrious 18 was devised for maximum gain using the least effort, getting the most of it. The tiniest fraction of a percentage point is a lot if there’s a large enough volume of money involved, though, so nothing wrong with trying to maximize your theoretical edge. You can run this out to its greatest extent even, with the most difficult composition dependent index possible for the least gain involved if you want to, where the difference in EV can be as little as .0001 between three possible playing decisions, to either hit, split, or double given the right deck composition, which will have virtually no impact on a simulation, but is still just a hell of a lot of fun if you are hardcore enough. Can you guess the hand?

There are times when some poppy has a $50 or $100 bet or more out, I am sitting with a 13 vs 2 on a $5 bet and asking what to do might help you out if you follow their recommendation. If they say to hit and you do and as a result the dealer busts, everyone is happy. If you take the dealers bust card and the dealer wins, no one blames you because you asked. If people say to do what you want, no one blames you as you asked and they did not advise.

I’ve also found another plus for doing this. Many times the big player will let you stay at the table when he asks the pit to raise the table min up to $100. I’ve played at a $100 min table with one other big player when all the DD tables are full and I’m allowed to still bet $10. People will walk by and ask the pit why I’m allowed to play at this table and they aren’t. The pit answers because the big player wants me at the table, and I don’t want to bet more than $10. This has happened to me several times. I’ve been able to spread pretty good when the big player is going from black to purple. I’ll be cruising along with my $10 min bets and then go up to $150 and nobody bats an eye. I’ll also “help him out” by spreading to two hands to “change up the cards”. I always ask him first and won’t do it if he doesn’t want me to. He usually says yes…and I obviously only do this when the count is positive.

Moses replies: Hmmm. And you’re still alive to write about it? STFU and play would be my thought. Or better yet, LEAVE, if my minimum bet size is 10 to your 1. IF he thinks you’re of any help whatsoever? He’s an idiot. How do you know that no one is batting an eye? If you jump from $10 to $150 when the count is positive? I’m gone. And you only bug him with the count is positive? What the hell? Why don’t you two just flip off the EITS and say "yes, motha facka’s, we are counting"? A $100 min bet player can hire someone to kick your ass for the price of two bets.

I don’t blame the BJA group for charging $3,000 for this course. If there are people willing to pay this amount, then they should charge this amount. As Bubbles has said, it’s supply vs demand. There’s a lot of demand for this course from this group (apparently there are a lot of poor readers out there, lol) so they’re able to charge a lot for it. It’s called capitalism, and the BJA group is stricking while the iron is hot. That’s called being good business people.

Now learning how to “get away with it” is another matter. This is the real skill in being an AP. As you probably know, the BJA group doesn’t believe in cover or betting cover. Their main pro, Joe, says one of his goals is be backed off at all the casinos. He blasts away going from table min to table max and gets barred quickly. Is this the skill set people are learning in the bootcamp? If it is, I’ve already learned it listening to a GWAE podcast with Joe.

Moses replies: You sure sound alot like T3 with your detailed descriptions. The $3k is not the point. The fact Joe is telling a bold faced lie is the concern. Basically, they are flipping off every casino and pit boss in the U.S. with both middle fingers extended. Consequently, it makes a REAL players job even more difficult. PLAY NICE. BE NICE. PLAY SMART. WORK HARD. Play within casino tolerance or get a lifetime ban.

As far as the value of something, many things bring us much more value than what we pay for it. I think we’d all agree that Don’s book BJA3 and Norm’s software has brought us much more value than its costs. If they charged based on it’s value, Don would be charging $10,000 to $25,000 for his book. I’m glad he doesn’t because I have bought 3 copies. One I keep in my house, one in my car in the trunk (so when I travel I always have it handy when I want to research something), and one I lend to people who are newbees interested in becoming counters.

I remember actually considering going to this bootcamp about 4 or 5 years ago when I first heard about it. At that time, I had just heard about it and I assumed it’d be about $400 to $500…about what Midwest Player thought it should cost. When I went on their web site and checked, I almost had a cow. I was shocked it cost $2,000. It was a no-brainer for me. I wasn’t going to attend any 2 day bootcamp for that much money (even though I could have easily afforded it) based on principle alone.

Here’s what you may not know: Colin does not live in Vegas, so he has to fly into town and travel with many supplies for the boot camp. On top of that, he rents a large house for about a 5 day period, and the rent on that house is very expensive. Roughly about 2.5 to 3x more expensive than what someone might pay for a small apartment in Las Vegas for an entire month! Further more, Colin employs help. Yes, he employs people to help train. Colin cannot train 12+ people on his own! I’m sure he could, but it couldn’t be done efficiently. There’s 4 or 5 people who are ALWAYS at the boot camp to help train, and their labor IS NOT FREE. And only one of those guys live in Vegas and the rest live out of state. I imagine Colin would covers their travel expenses too. On top of that, Colin provides all of the boot campers with food on Day 1 and takes everyone out to eat on Day 2 after boot camp has concluded. So if you thought Colin is charging 3K per head and only teaching people +1 and -1 and that’s it… then you are clearly not seeing the entire picture.

However, he is a bright business man. In the off season he would put together camps. Now he has a great relationship with the colleges so his overhead is low for the camps. Teams will pay a premium to come to the camps to play in a college arena, experience campus life for a few days, and have college level officials work their game. The aspiring college level officials will pay as much as $500 a head to be seen and instructed by college level officials and he sells out months in advance. Now out of maybe 250 to 300 in attendance only 2 or 3 actually get assigned a college game. He put on about 5 camps a year. YES, he was making a TON of money. But what is missing in this picture?

There was no time spent with family. I’ve sat in his classes and listened to some of the top notch officials who’d dedicated their lives to game. So what’s the problem? They made a TON of money at a GAME. One speaker even broke into tears as he realized his time spent in a basketball arena, in airports, motel rooms, and rented cars that LIFE had passed him by.

Play, Win, Improve, Protect is my mantra. Without one you won’t get the other. You can’t win if you can’t play. You won’t continue to win if you won’t put in the time necessary to improve your game. IF you don’t stand up against these self serving fools and protect your game, there may not be a game to play, or the casinos will take all the potential net out of the game.