## Predicted difficulty increase before february bitcoin contracts start _ genesismining bitcoin buy price

We’ve seen a few posts here around the topic of how profitable the new bitcoin contracts will be when they eventually start mining from the 28th february 2018.

We made a calculator that we’ve shared a few times for estimating the profitability of these contracts that takes these difficulty changes into account, but it doesn’t really explain how – so we figured we’d give some info on this.

The short story is that there’s no perfect way to predict it, but looking at the changes over the past few years is a good way to get some base numbers. We did this and saw that increases ranged from 10% every 4 months right up to 85% over 4 months. Doing some averages on these numbers we came up with increases of between 12% (an optimistic value) and 22% (a skeptical value) monthly.

**Bitcoin buy price**bitcoin wisdom has a log of all the difficulty changes, so you can work these numbers your for yourself too.

In terms of these specific bitcoin contracts, given the difficulty is currently 1.36T, when they start in late february 2018 the difficulty will likely be between 1.91T and 2.08T (will be very interesting looking back on this in 3 months time to see if these figures are right!). Assuming this continues to increase at 12%/22% monthly, over the following 2 years it will go from 1.91T to 29T, and from 2.08T up to 31.6T (these are open-ended so this may go on for even longer, but we’ll stay skeptical). When you’re doing your calculations you could use the average of these values to estimate profitability over these years, or simulate the 2 year period per day in a spreadsheet and add up the profit per day.**Bitcoin buy price** averaging it you’d get 10.53T optimistically, and 11.48T skeptically.

Hope that helps some people out! Our own tool goes through per day rather than averaging values, we find this is more accurate – but it’s also a total pain to do in a spreadsheet. Here it is if you’re interested. 😀

• 6 comments

• share

• save

• hide

• report

This was based on looking at analysis/predictions from a number of respected youtubers, news websites, and high-profile people in the bitcoin world.

On one side there are groups of people suggesting bitcoin will crash by 99% and never recover. Given the current interest in bitcoin all the things planned that are based around it we think this is unlikely, although it still a possibility. On the other end of the spectrum many claim that bitcoin will increase 10x within the next year, some even more.**Bitcoin buy price** this would be great, but is again not as likely as it reaching say 2x within the next year. The values we used are the middle-ground of these two arguments, based around a yearly increase of between 2x-3x. If we used each argument for optimistic/skeptical calculations the data wouldn’t be very useful, where if skeptically the price went down 20% a month you’d definitely lose money, and if it went up 50% a month you’d definitely earn money; using the middle ground gave much more useful data to make investment decisions (although all of our content is informational, and however much we try is still subjective). Hopefully that explains the numbers, if not maybe we can make a video going through the various analysis/predictions. 🙂

• permalink

• embed

• save

• parent

• report

• give gold

• reply

We’ve seen a few posts here around the topic of how profitable the new bitcoin contracts will be when they eventually start mining from the 28th february 2018.**Bitcoin buy price**

We made a calculator that we’ve shared a few times for estimating the profitability of these contracts that takes these difficulty changes into account, but it doesn’t really explain how – so we figured we’d give some info on this.

The short story is that there’s no perfect way to predict it, but looking at the changes over the past few years is a good way to get some base numbers. We did this and saw that increases ranged from 10% every 4 months right up to 85% over 4 months. Doing some averages on these numbers we came up with increases of between 12% (an optimistic value) and 22% (a skeptical value) monthly. So generally speaking, when you’re doing calculations you can use numbers in this range. Bitcoin wisdom has a log of all the difficulty changes, so you can work these numbers your for yourself too.**Bitcoin buy price**

In terms of these specific bitcoin contracts, given the difficulty is currently 1.36T, when they start in late february 2018 the difficulty will likely be between 1.91T and 2.08T (will be very interesting looking back on this in 3 months time to see if these figures are right!). Assuming this continues to increase at 12%/22% monthly, over the following 2 years it will go from 1.91T to 29T, and from 2.08T up to 31.6T (these are open-ended so this may go on for even longer, but we’ll stay skeptical). When you’re doing your calculations you could use the average of these values to estimate profitability over these years, or simulate the 2 year period per day in a spreadsheet and add up the profit per day. Averaging it you’d get 10.53T optimistically, and 11.48T skeptically.

Hope that helps some people out!**Bitcoin buy price** our own tool goes through per day rather than averaging values, we find this is more accurate – but it’s also a total pain to do in a spreadsheet. Here it is if you’re interested. 😀

• 6 comments

• share

• save

• hide

• report

This was based on looking at analysis/predictions from a number of respected youtubers, news websites, and high-profile people in the bitcoin world.

On one side there are groups of people suggesting bitcoin will crash by 99% and never recover. Given the current interest in bitcoin all the things planned that are based around it we think this is unlikely, although it still a possibility. On the other end of the spectrum many claim that bitcoin will increase 10x within the next year, some even more. This would be great, but is again not as likely as it reaching say 2x within the next year.**Bitcoin buy price** the values we used are the middle-ground of these two arguments, based around a yearly increase of between 2x-3x. If we used each argument for optimistic/skeptical calculations the data wouldn’t be very useful, where if skeptically the price went down 20% a month you’d definitely lose money, and if it went up 50% a month you’d definitely earn money; using the middle ground gave much more useful data to make investment decisions (although all of our content is informational, and however much we try is still subjective). Hopefully that explains the numbers, if not maybe we can make a video going through the various analysis/predictions. 🙂

• permalink

• embed

• save

• parent

• report

• give gold

• reply